MONEY GLOBE XMacro for Professionals · Lesson 1
The yield curve and recessions
The bond market's warning light
Professional - Gold & Platinum
In this lesson
Read the yield curve, understand why inversions have preceded recessions, and why the signal is imperfect.
Key takeaways
- The yield curve compares short- and long-term interest rates; normally it slopes up.
- An inversion (e.g. 10-year below 2-year) has preceded most US recessions since the 1970s, often by 6–24 months.
- It is not a precise timer; the long 2022–2024 inversion showed its limits.
- Watch the re-steepening and combine with jobs, credit spreads and earnings.
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Next lesson: Inflation, real rates and gold
Educational information only - not financial advice.